Who had a 7.7% increase in home sales on their real estate bingo card for October?
The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows Canadian home sales activity spiked last month, reaching a level unseen since April 2022, and surpassing the 10-year monthly moving average.
“The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
Before we get into why this happened and what it all means as we head into 2025, here are some of the latest numbers:
- Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly home sales activity came in 30% above October 2023.
- The number of newly listed properties was down 3.5% month-over-month in October.
- The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 6% on a year-over-year basis in October.
What caused the October rise in home sales?
As Cathcart mentioned, the catalyst wasn’t necessarily the recent “jumbo rate cut” from the Bank of Canada, but rather September’s 4.8% jump in newly listed properties. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Lower Mainland region of British Columbia, two of Canada’s priciest markets, recorded double digit sales increases—a 14% increase month-over-month in the GTA and a near 20% increase in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September,” said James Mabey, CREA’s Chair.
It’s important to remember that, typically, home sales tend to slow down in November.
So, while October may have raised some eyebrows—especially the 30% year-over-year increase in sales compared to October 2023—November’s numbers may come back down to Earth.
“We can sort of consider October and maybe November as sort of a preview of some of the even bigger numbers you and I will be talking about once the snow starts to melt next year,” Cathcart said in CREA’s Housing Market Report (see below).
Canadian home prices remain mostly flat for now
Even with all the added activity and pullback of new listings in October, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)—an exclusive tool REALTORS® use to measure a neighbourhood’s home price levels and trends most accurately—was pretty much unchanged, dropping ever so slightly by 0.07%.
“That said, there’s usually a bit of lag between when demand picks up and the market tightens, and then when prices react,” Cathcart explained.
“The long-term average is over five (months), so using history as a guide, we may start to see this impacting the price side as early as next month.”
October saw the national sales-to-new-listings ratio jump from 52% to 58%, and the number of months of inventory drop from 4.1 months to 3.7 months.
Regionally, prices are softer in British Columbia and Ontario, and that’s keeping the national average flat. Markets in the Prairies, Quebec and the East Coast are seeing prices rise.
“It’s sort of like someone played an Uno reverse card here on Canadian housing trends,” Cathcart added.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $696,166 in October 2024.
